In this paper, Hans g. Jud examines the oil production of Saudi Arabia using data which have been recently made available by Saudi Aramco and other sources. The results of Jud's analysis are broadly comparable with those of other authors and, in particular, with the interpretation of Matt Simmons in his book "Twilight in the desert". It seems that Saudi Arabia's production is close to peaking, if it has not peaked already.
This paper has been object of comments on the parts of members of ASPO. According to some of these comments, the linear method used by the author to obtain the ultimate recoverable resource may not be the correct way of extrapolating the data. In particular, it may lead to an underestimation of the URR. It appears, therefore, that the results of the paper are to be considered as a first approximation, but are still to be considered as a valuable element for judging the consistence of the Saudi reserves.
Hans Jud's article is available in pdf
Klaus Illum's critical comment to Jud's paper is also avaliable in pdf